Rischi ambientali e valutazioni aziendali
"Climate-related risk can impact financial stability through three types of risk.
First, physical risks such as meteorological events (storms and heavy rains), hydrological events (floods) and other climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) are affecting the value of financial assets worldwide.
An increasing number of reports available to investors and the general public offer improved techniques for pricing CRR (climate related risks, ndr) financial risk. All this new information points to the need to reassess prices.
Second, transition risks may result from the adjustment of asset prices towards a low-carbon economy. Transition risks are possible in an environment where greater disclosure of financial assets is required, and new CC (climate change, ndr) regulation creates new obligations to move towards a lower-carbon economy.
These changes, while desirable per se, could impact the asset price of very large sectors of the economy such as coal, oil and gas but also of companies that produce cars, ships and aircraft. All these assets could be subject to a change in investors' perception of profitability and business sustainability. If the changes are abrupt, an archetypal fire sale might result, potentially triggering a financial crisis.
Finally, liability risks stem from the increased compensation paid to economic agents affected by climate change.
There are reports from the insurance industry showing a growing level of insured and uninsured losses resulting from CRR. These losses impact the financial health of both the insurer and also the equity value of firms that are subject to these weather-related events."
Questi tre insiemi di rischi connessi ai cambiamenti climatici (i grassetti sono miei) non sono ancora compiutamente inclusi nella valutazione dei titoli degli emittenti, come rileva Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, General Manager della Banca dei Regolamenti Internazionali, in un interessante discorso intitolato "Research on climate-related risks and financial stability: An "epistemological break"?" al quale potete accedere, direttamente dal sito della BRI, cliccando qui.
Il tema degli impatti che l'inclusione dei rischi climatici assume nella valutazione di una qualsiasi attività finanziaria (ma anche reale) riveste un'importanza non banale, e questo in una duplice direzione: "The risks and returns of financial assets can become new key determinants of how effectively climate change can be combated.
If investors assess and price financial risks properly, then polluting assets will become more costly. In turn, more investments will flow into green assets, driving the transition to a low-carbon economy.
There are some indications that these risks are not yet fully priced in, but research is starting to change that state of benign neglect."
Le imprese, gli investitori in generale ed i banchieri in paticolare debbono ancora compiere un lungo percorso prima di riuscire a saper valutare, in modo accurato, questa nuova classe di rischi sistemici.Come procedere? Il paradigma delle valutazioni di impresa deve mutare, e sarà davvero una nuova rivoluzione copernicana.